Enjoy a comprehensive collection of footage and video from
Tigers on the Trail.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Saturday, January 5, 2008
And the Winner is...
“If they leave you can count them goodbye” said an Edwards precinct captain to an Obama precinct captain. Tensions were high as caucus-goers stood in groups for their respective candidates.
We were stationed at precinct 311 at Valley High School in Des Moines, Iowa. Unprecedented turnout and severe overcrowding relocated the caucus from a tight classroom to the high school’s hallway. With a more spacious venue, we watched as democracy took shape.
311’s precinct chair established 48 as the number of supporters each Democratic hopeful needed to be considered a viable candidate. This was based on the 320 registered voters in the precinct. After the first count, Biden had 34 votes, Clinton had 79 votes, Edwards had 36 votes, Obama had 137 votes, and Richardson had 35 votes.
Once the first count was recorded, unviable candidate supporters were up for the taking. Supporters of viable candidates, in this case, Clinton and Obama, began recruiting supporters of Edwards, Biden, and Richardson, the unviable. Determined to reach the 48 person mark, the Edwards precinct captain convinced most of the Richardson and Biden crowd to align with his group. In fact, we spotted a man dressed in Biden gear munching on an Edwards decorated cookie.
Standing in one corner of the hallway was Margaret Ann Baron, a resident of Des Moines. Baron, originally caucusing for Joe Biden was prepared to go home when her candidate fell short of the viability threshold. We asked her why she was not joining another candidate’s group. She replied that she “didn’t care for Hillary and Obama doesn’t have enough experience.” We then inquired as to why she wasn’t caucusing for Edwards, and she said, “I thought he wasn’t viable.” We told her he was and immediately Edwards gained another supporter. I guess we are guilty of assisting the senator’s camp.
After 15 minutes of realignment, Clinton had 88 votes, Edwards had 58 votes, and Obama had 169 votes. With these votes and a series of mathematical calculations, delegates were determined; Clinton gained two delegates, Edwards gained one delegate, and Obama gained four delegates.
After the caucuses ended, precincts reported their results. With candidate parties well underway, supporters waited for the numbers to come in. At 9 pm, 94 percent of precincts declared Obama the winner, Edwards in second place, and Clinton in third place.
We attended Clinton’s celebration. It was hosted by the Des Moines Hotel and had approximately 200 guests in attendance. Food and drinks were served as precinct captains took their honorary positions on stage. Anxiously awaiting Clinton’s appearance, the crowd began chanting, “Hillary, Hillary, Hillary…”. Promptly at 9:30 pm, Clinton took center stage. She announced, “I am ready for the rest of this campaign, and I am so ready to lead…This is good news for Democrats.” She concluded by congratulating her opponents, Edwards and Obama.
The Iowa caucuses are the first in the nation and, as a result, may very well be the most influential. Time will only tell what is in store for these three presidential hopefuls, but one thing is for certain- Obama departed Iowa with a win, Edwards with a place, and Clinton with a show.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Inside the republican caucus.
their republican neighbors caucus by listening to a 2 1/2 min
representatives from each campaign (normally a citizen who is involved
in the campaign). Then they cast their vote by secret ballot unlike
the open vote in the democratic process The republican process is
simple and orderly-- the exact opposite of the democrats.
The turnout of both parties is higher than in 2004. It appears that
this year's turnout is higher than predicted.
Results of Iowa Caucuses
So here's the rundown, for the many readers who are relying on us for their caucus scoop:
Democrats:
1. Obama 38%
2. Edwards 30%
3. Clinton 29%
Republicans:
1. Huckabee 34%
2. Romney 25%
3. Thompson 13%
Some thoughts on the results:
*Will Clinton be able to survive? As Charlie Cook told us, the media is going to have a field day with Obama's win. Hillary's third place finish was a huge dissapointment and they are going to crucify her for it. She will be seen as a loser. Can she overcome this image and make a comeback? I have doubts.
*Is Huckabee's blowout win a sign of things to come? Obviously New Hampshire's landscape is much different than Iowa's, and Huckabee will not have near the evangelical support there. However, you'd have to think he'll have some momentum even there, based on the huge margin of his victory.
*Will McCain continue to live on? It's looking like he is going to barely miss out on a third place finish, not exactly providing him with momentum going into New Hampshire. Can he still win there? Looks like it will be a challenge.
Caucuses Exciting; Big Win for Obama
By Elizabeth Weiner
Pictures show Edwards precinct captain counting votes in the Democratic caucus of precinct 212 at Valley High School in West Des Moines. The event was exciting to say the least. Caucus-goers chanted as they encouraged supporters of non-viable candidates to join their group. Obama's group took 3 delegates, Clinton's took 2, Edwards' took 2, and Richardson took 1. Edwards started out with 1 and gained enough people in the 2nd alignment to pick up their 2nd delegate.
Next door, Mitt Romney spoke at the Republican caucus for that district.
The rest of the pictures are from the Obama victory party.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Caucus-Goers Should Be Proud
The caucus process is an unprecedented event that I am thrilled to have witnessed. Throughout the last few days, I have been inspired by Iowa's large civic engagement in the democratic process and I hope, in turn, that those Iowans who have lost sight of their awesome privilege have been equally inspired by our passion that has brought us over a thousand miles to Iowa.
While watching the process unfold, I realized that the presidential candidates must invest a lot of confidence in their voters. Not only do they rely on their supporters to turn out and vote at the caucus, but they must also hope that they have voters who are willing to stand up in front of their peers and persuade them to follow their candidate.
However, it is frightening to realize that one determined demographic can define the nominee for the presidential race. I don't believe that Huckabee's victory in Iowa is likely to follow him through the other states. And if McCain wins New Hampshire this places Romney out of consideration for the GOP nomination. So, in reality, the strong rural evangelicals of Iowa have possibly ruined Romney's chance at a race for United States presidency.
Nonetheless, Iowa's voter turn out tonight, although predicted, was still extremely surprising and something to be proud of. Over 200,000 Democrats turned out to vote and about 110,000 Republicans caucused tonight. These jaw-dropping numbers are exactly why Obama and Huckabee are the caucus winners. It will be interesting to see how much effect this built up momentum will carry them through the remaining primaries.
Statistics on Iowa Winner
Will one of you, tell me know what the statistics are concerning the probability the Iowa winner will be our next president. Also, on a side note, I recently registered to vote Independent in Louisiana, since I have learned as an Independent, I will not be allowed to vote in the primary elections. Is this correct?
Thanks!
Kudos to all of you - on your great trip to Iowa.
Aunt Tee
Voter turnout.
I am blogging live from the cafeteria of Valley High School in Des Moines, IA. 419 total caucus goers have arrived at precinct 212 which is more than double the turn out in 2004. In this precinct, 181 new democrats have registered tonight.
Candidates must receive 15% of 419 (which is 63 in this precinct) in order to be "viable" (go onto the next round) where they can lobby the supporters of non-viable candidates to join them during the realignment period. The democratic process is wild ; energetic chatter fills the room. It is largely operated by those who are caucusing.
So far in round 1: (Candidate- # of Votes)Clinton-85; Obama-154; Edwards-64, Richardson-60; Dodd and Biden are still organizing.
The republicans are next door in the auditorium where Gov. Romney along with two of his sons and other prominent supporters of other candidates are greeting and answering questions as caucus goers enter. The republican process is more orderly and simpler than that of the democrats.
Witnessing these caucuses unfold is something I wish everyone had the opportunity to experience. I was lucky enough to stand beside Gov. Romney as the republicans in the auditorium recited the pledge before the caucus began. The process leading up to the caucus when Iowans "date" the candidates is uniquely personal-- it is my opinion that the purest form of democracy happens in Iowa's caucuses.
-Adam Parker
Confused about what’s happening in the Caucus? So is Iowa
Des Moines, IA – A flip through any of the major news station today shows headlines reporting that the races are “too close to call.” With the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucus less than hours away, there are a multitude of polls being released – none of which support the other. Being in Iowa does not help to make the races seem any clearer. Charlie Cook, founder and editor of The Cook Political Report, gave some reasons why several of the candidates appear to be on top.
“The Democrats, to me, are like kids in a Baskin-Robbins. They’re looking at 31 flavors, many which sound so good,” Cook said. Indeed, during my Iowa travels, I have heard many Iowa Democrats say things such as, “I like __________, but I would be just as happy with __________,” (Fill in the blanks with any of the top three candidates – Clinton, Obama or Edwards – and you would have many Iowa Democrats spot on).
In reality, the latest Iowa rallies for Clinton, Obama and Edwards support the theory that the three do agree on many of the issues. They each agree that the U.S. should begin to withdraw troops in Iraq; that healthcare is an issue that needs to be changed to cover more Americans; that education needs to be reformed; and that global warming is a very real issue that the U.S. needs to help resolve by cutting emissions. As Cook said, many Iowa Democrats may have aligned themselves with a candidate, but “at least two or three others would be acceptable.”
Republicans in Iowa may be having a harder time deciding which candidate they should caucus for. Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney had a successful career as a businessman before he became Governor of Massachusetts in 2003, and Republican voters who value fiscal responsibility seem to like him. A Tuesday night rally for candidate Mike Huckabee, however, showed that Republican voters who are socially conservative and have strong religious values are attracted to Huck.
There is no Republican candidate who seems to unite the two, and besides dark-horse candidate Ron Paul, Romney and Huckabee are the two main choices for Iowa Republicans. Fred Thompson, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani have all but dismissed the Caucus and passed on devoting any legitimate time to campaigning in the state. Republicans may feel as if they are looking at a menu, and cannot find anything that is exactly what they want to order, as Cook put it.
Although, the exact turnout and results of the Caucus are unknown, one thing seems certain. Any Democratic candidate would have a slight advantage over any Republican candidate, simply because of the nature of voters. “We just don’t elect a party three times in a row,” Cook said. The nation has had eight years of a Republican president, and eight seems to be enough. Never mind President Bush’s historically low approval ratings, which only magnify the advantage Democrats have for 2008. If we had had eight years of a Democratic president, the reverse would be true.
Add to that the fact that Democrats are hungry for a victory after losing with two different candidates in the past eight years. Iowa voters will be the first to know tonight which candidate may likely become the next nominee for either party. The rest of the nation will have to watch the Caucus unfold tonight, because the races are likely to remain too close to call.
LSU students Amanda Collura, Caroline Cooper, Gabby Martinez and Megan Peterson meet with Senator Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally in Iowa Wednesday night.
Persuasion Power: The Supporters' Turn
From what I have observed, there are distinct features that have emerged from the supporters of the leading candidates. And that leads me to wonder who will have a stronger ability to persuade the undecided or supporters of non-viable candidates after the first round.
For example (and this is just a generalization) will the opinionated and obstinate older women that I observed at the Clinton rally be able to make compromises needed to appeal to the undecided caucus-goers? Obama made a big push to recruit youth to his campaign, but will these 17- and 18-year-old, first-time caucus-goers have the experience and sincerity to persuade undecided voters? Will the impassioned, working-class Edwards supporters be able to make the concessions needed to persuade undecided voters?
And on the Republican side, will the evangelical, far-right Huckabee supporters use more than rhetoric to appeal to the undecided? Can stuffy Romney supporters make acknowledgments of the far-right needed to appeal to the undecided?
These were clearly generalizations, but I would not have included them if I did not witness the rallies first hand. I clearly feel that the presence of the die-hards in attendance at all of the campaigns may prove to be detrimental to support, but considering that all of the candidates have their fair share of die-hard supporters, it may all even out in the end.
But tonight is the night. As the nation has its eyes on Iowa, it comes down to the individual Iowa residents. Don’t let my little criticisms fool you, for the supporters of all candidates are, if anything, impassioned. No matter what the polls say now, tonight we will find out which supporters were able to persuaders.
Caucus Night is upon us. And the winner is....
By Robert McAlister
With just under 4 hours until the Iowa Caucuses get under way, there is still no way to accurately determine which Democratic candidate will come away with the most support at the end of the night. Even though a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows Barack Obama pulling away finishing ahead of John Edwards and placing Hillary Clinton in third, there are too many other factors that make this race’s outcome unknowable.
For instance, John Edwards has retained much of the same organization that he had in 2004 when he ran for president, an advantage neither Obama nor Clinton has. Edwards has a loyal group of fervent supporters and there is no reason to suspect that they will stay home. Clinton on the other hand does extremely well with women over 50 who have been known to show up in great numbers, according to Clinton Strategist and well-respected Democratic operative Jerry Crawford. There is also no reason to suspect that the over 50 female demographic will stay home tonight, especially with a warming of temperatures (comparatively in Iowa, it’s still below freezing).
Barack Obama has the obvious advantage in the polls today and has had that advantage for the later part of the Iowa campaign. It appears that Obama is doing extremely well with independents, who can show up tonight to democratic caucuses and support him if they change their registration on the spot. There is a projection that a large number of independents will show up tonight, according to a recent Des Moines Register poll. That projection would also require unprecedented turn out, which could still happen given the excitement around this year’s caucus.
Despite the millions spent on campaign commercials, the incredible organization by all three campaigns over the last year and the incredible amount of time that the candidates have committed to the Hawkeye State, there is no way to tell whether Clinton, Edwards or Obama will decisively win or just barely get by. While Iowa is by no means the final Armageddon type battle of this campaign season, a loss here can represent a significant setback to a major front-runner like Clinton, while a win for an underdog like Edwards could catapult him into at least having a shot at winning the nomination.
Journalists, pundits and fans of the political process will be glued to their television screens tonight to find out the ultimate outcome of the caucus is but one thing is guaranteed: A concession speech tonight could be as important as a victory speech. (See Howard Dean circa 2004…)
Observations on Ron Paul
So we got a chance to hear Ron Paul speak today, and there were a few things that struck me about him. I'm not sure that I would vote for the guy, but I was impressed by a few things. No matter what you think about his policies, there seem to be a few undeniable elements that set him apart from other candidates.
When he speaks, he does not try and use fancy rhetoric or fireworks or emotional theatrics like most candidates we have seen. He just talks. Today he simply stood in front of the people and told them what he thought. No screaming, no impressive oratory. He just talked. And the crowd loved it, screaming and clapping throughout the speech.
What ifObama threw away all the fancy rhetoric and stunning theatrics? If he just stood there and outlined his plans for change, would he really be capturing many audiences?
Paul's ideas alone -- no matter how crazy you think they are -- are enough to bring crowds to their feet. That was impressive to me.
I also got a very strong sense that with Ron Paul, what you see is what you get. Many of the other major candidates left me questioning their sincerity. Is Mitt Romney really dedicated to the pro-life cause? Is Hillary Clinton really set on bringing the troops home from Iraq? Does Huckabee really plan on cracking down on our immigration problems? But with Ron Paul, I definitely got the sense that he believed in every plan he presented.
The most impressive thing to me about Ron Paul is how far he has gotten. Whether you support him or not, it should be encouraging to everyone that even in today's money-driven world, a relatively insignificant political player like Paul has a chance to be heard. I think much of this can be credited to the rise of the Internet. Hopefully this is a sign that the future will be filled with candidates who the people most support, not the candidates who spend the most money.
Ron Paul Holds Health Forum at DMU
Ron Paul addressed a crowd in a full auditorium at Des Moines University this afternoon exactly 7 hours before the start of caucuses in Iowa. He focused on healthcare and spoke on Iraq, foreign affairs, and taxes.
"Healthcare is not a right. Owning a home is not a right. You have a right to life and hopefully, one day, a right to keep what you earn." Paul got applause from the audience.
On foreign affairs, Paul stated, "It's time to bring our troops home from around the world." He supports immediate withdrawal from Iraq and all other locations globally. He believes that we can solve many of America's problems by changing our foreign policy and cutting overseas spending drastically.
Paul answered specific questions from the crowd. One question challenged Paul on whether or not there is a contradiction between his role as a doctor bringing babies into the world and his views about gun control. Paul laughed, and answered, "I would say you need that gun to protect that baby!" The attendees seemed to enjoy Paul's laid back sense of humor.
Paul plans to continue on through Super Tuesday, and he has surprisingly raised a good bit of funds to do so.
By Elizabeth Weiner
Edwards Speaks to SteelWorkers in Final Hours
By Elizabeth Weiner
The SteelWorkers Union Hall was packed this morning as Edwards supporters gathered to hear their candidate one more time before spending the day calling potential caucus-goers.
The crowd was very energized with chants such as, "We love Elizabeth. We love John. We want to see them on the White House lawn." Then there was, "John loves labor, and labor loves John!"
The crowd was very energized with chants such as, "We love Elizabeth. We love John. We want to see them on the White House lawn." Then there was, "John loves labor, and labor loves John!"
Edwards' message was brief and enthusiastic. Despite the latest poll numbers, Edwards assured supporters that he would win Iowa and then move on to New Hampshire. He encouraged volunteers to follow the campaign trail to New Hampshire in the coming days.
The press followed Edwards through the room as he quickly shook hands with volunteers and headed back to the campaign bus. His appearance lasted only about 10 minutes, but it seemed to be enough to energize this group.
Edwards Energizes Union Supporters on Morning of Caucus
Edwards supporters have been using the Des Moines United Steel Workers Union Hall as a campaign call center, and Edwards stopped there this morning for a quick “thank you.” A standard mix of Springsteen, CCR, Tom Petty, and The Rolling Stones played while campaign volunteers waited for the candidate. When he got there, you could tell he finally slept—his 36 hour tour ended last night at his John Mellencamp rally.
Iowa First Lady Mari Culver quickly introduced the candidate, and he gave a short speech outlining basic differences between himself and his Democratic competitors. “Two other campaigns believe that their money will make them inevitable,” he said before explaining that his relationship with overlooked citizens is more powerful than Clinton and Obama’s campaign finances. “We see you, we hear you, we embrace you, and we’re going to lift you up.”
He used familiar language, paused for raucous campaign chants, and even asked his supporters to go with him to New Hampshire after he wins here in Iowa. The rowdy gathering that packed the small room seemed ready to get back to work immediately after Edwards left. Labor’s support for Edwards—the crowd chanted “John loves labor, labor loves John” before he got off the bus—coupled with faithful supporters from 2004 and disenchanted Obama/Clinton Democrats are what keeps him competitive in this race. The latest polls are so close that when results come in tonight, Iowans may deliver him a surprise first or second place that will build momentum for his New Hampshire campaign. Some may even follow him there.
Iowa Historical Museum Packed for Hillary in Final Push
Up Close with Romney: "One America"
We had a great experience at Romney's final rally before the caucuses tonight. It was a smaller crowd, but it was filled with many avid Romney supporters. Not only were they committed to him, but they knew why, which was impressive. The focus of Romney's address was "one America," and it focused on cohesiveness and patriotism and how we should use these positive sentiments to create change in Washington.
Posted by Elizabeth Weiner
Caucus Results Are "Uniquely Iowan"
The variety of presidential demographic support is worth noting. Senior political adviser for Hilary Clinton, Jerry Crawford, noted their biggest supporters as women over the age of sixty. There is huge support for Obama among many students, which was quite prevalent at his rally Tuesday afternoon. His campaign staff and volunteers were young and fearlessly out front to coral supporters. Huckabee's "Huck and Chuck" rally Tuesday night consisted of many rural citizens and Romeny saw a big presence of socio-economic conservatives.
Of course, for those tracking this election, these supporters come as no surprise. These demographics have been fairly consistent throughout the campaign trails. However, it is interesting to consider because the winners of the Iowa caucuses will illustrate a model for the outcomes of the country's remaining primaries and caucuses. And the Iowa winners are determined by a group of people who may in fact not truly represent the American people. As Des Moines's KCCI anchorman Kevin Cooney said, the caucus results are "uniquely Iowan."
The general consensus will eventually reveal itself after all the primaries come to a close. However, the importance placed on the Iowa caucuses seem to put a heavy burden on the state to set an accurate precedent for what is to come- not necessarily who will be elected the next United States commander-in-chief but who the rest of the country will consider to fill the position.
David Frost from the Iowa Democratic Party said that some Iowans tend to "lose sight" of their privilege to intimately participate in the democratic process, but is confident that the caucuses will go smoothly because Iowa has "thirty years of built up institutional knowledge."
An important reminder that Doug Gross, senior political adviser for the Romney campaign, pointed out is that the polls cannot accurately predict the caucus winners because according to him, "it's all about turn out." Candidates that are in second place in the polls are hopeful that the turn out of caucus-goers this Thursday night will prove to be favorable on their behalf and challenge the polls.
The demographics, especially those between Clinton and Obama, are particularly noteworthy because of the importance of voter turn out. Clinton's older female supporters have proven to be the most loyal caucus-goers in the past. Obama's large student support is encouraging and impressive. However, it remains to be seen if his support base will materialize Thursday night. As political analyst Charlie Cook said Wednesday night, "this whole things has been up and down...I don't know why it would all of a sudden become predictable."
Iowa Democratic Veterans' Caucus Endorses Obama on Eve of Caucus
Supporters braved the now famous early January Iowa cold to fill the gymnasium at Hoover High School in Des Moines, Iowa tonight. The event began at 10 p.m. with a caucus trivia session which quizzed rally goers on caucus terms and rules. They also provided them with the information that they needed to get to their precinct caucus tomorrow evening. Since Obama is relying so heavily on first time caucus goers, his staff is doing all that it can to educate as many uninformed potentials as possible.
After the informational session, an Obama staffer introduced Kent Sovern, the Iowa Democratic Veterans' Caucus organizer. He announced that his organization has switched its endorsement from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama, because they believe he has a better chance to win the national election in November. Michelle Obama then took the stage to introduce her husband.
A visibly fatigued Barack Obama walked onto the stage and encouraged his caucus virgin supporters to prove the pundits wrong and brave the cold tomorrow to caucus in support of their candidate. He said nothing new and stuck to safely repeating his message of hope about the future. He hoarsely led his campaign chant, "Fired up, ready to go!"
Obama understands the key to winning is making sure these first timers get to the caucus, and he's doing all that he can to make that happen.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
A View from Behind
Tonight was the opportunity of a lifetime.
Three other fellow bloggers and I decided we wanted to get to the Hillary Clinton Rally early to get a great spot. Well, great spot is quite an understatement - seeing that we were able to sit right behind the stage and meet with the Clinton family after the rally.
In addition to the extreme coolness of being able to be right in the thick of things, it was quite exciting to view a political rally from a candidate's eyes.
The early bird really does get the worm or, in our case, the best seat in the house!
Among the attendees, some notables were Ted Danson and wife Mary Steenburgen, General Will Clark, and Madeleine Albright.
In the closing hours on the campaign trail in Iowa, candidates are most certainly reaffirming their messages and Clinton was no different. She insisted that as President, she will work for universal healthcare, veteran's benefits, improving education, investing in alternative fuels in addition to others.
As I tuck away my autographed material and enjoy the few drops of excitement, I anticipate the change of events with tomorrow's caucus.
Insurgent Huckabee Summons Ghost of George Wallace from '68
Caution, Iowa: Republican Earthquake Approaching
As the hours wind down until the decisive Iowa caucus, the Republican Party finds itself in the quandary it has long sought to avoid -- the inevitable rift between social/religious conservatives and corporate conservatives. No two candidates in recent memory have more epitomized each than the former Baptist minister, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and the former venture capitalist, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.
The fault lines were quite stark in the past two nights, as Huckabee's "Chuck and Huck" event Tuesday night bore absolutely no resemblance to Romney's rally in West Des Moines this evening. The Huckabee crowd, whooping shouts of "Hallelujah" and "Amen, Mike," was decidedly blue-collar, working class supporters out to cheer on their anointed champion. On the other hand, Romney's crowd was staid, plaid, and polite, but their candidate elicited about as many raucous cheers as Don Imus would at a Rutgers home game.
Of course, a Huckabee victory would set off tremors in the Republican Party that might lead to a wholesale tectonic shift should be continue to gain support. While Romney might patch up the bruised Reagan coalition, Huckabee would simply tear it apart.
All of this division within the conservative electorate hasn't been seen since the 1968 election, when George Wallace was barnstorming the country preaching the gospel of white populism to all who would hear him. Huckabee -- sans the segregation issue Wallace is most identified with -- seems to be conjuring up crowds of a similar demographic makeup. These supporters, long suspect of political candidates promising them action on red-meat social issues, seem drawn to Huckabee's message of social conservatism and economic, well, liberalism, in a way reminiscent of Wallace in '68. While Wallace wasn't railing against integration, he was attracting blue-collar whites from out of the woodwork to hear his unusual mix of policies.
And while George Wallace certainly wasn't a Republican and wasn't running neck-and-neck with any major presidential contender, he received enough support to further separate culturally conservative voters from their previous party.
In the '68 election, it was Richard Nixon who represented the establishment conservatives, the Wall-Street types who didn't care for Wallace's demagoguery or, for that matter, his populist economic policies for the working class. These days, it's Romney attempting to hold on to "the Reagan coalition of economic, social, and military conservatives" that he mentioned as the three core foundations of his support, but it's obvious, both in his personal background and in the appearances of his rally attendees, that he has succeeded most at attracting the first part of those three pillars.
Huckabee, meanwhile, can channel the Biblical language to entice religious conservatives to his cause by campaigning against homosexual rights and against abortion rights. But his economic message is altogether different. Chuck Norris even praised Huckabee's proposal for a "Fair Tax" because he mentioned how rich he was and how he was willing to pay a bigger tax share so working-class families could be eased of their tax burden.
To borrow Romney's favorite phrase, Huckabee is certainly failing Reagan 101.
But as for Wallace 101, Huckabee might stand to receive better marks.
Media Fuels Mudslinging Fire and Impacts Outcome of Nomination Process
At all of the rallies I have attended, there has been at least one negative mention (either directly or through a joke) of an opposing candidate. Understandably, candidates have to address other candidates in debates and to a certain extent. Some candidates decide to run paid negative advertisements, and others try as hard as possible to stay away from it.
Interestingly enough, mudslinging has proven to be fairly effective in local and national races across the country. There have been times when two front-runners have been so nasty that a candidate formerly in third took the race.
However, it seems to me that the media fuels the mudslinging fire far more than the candidates alone. I was glued to CNN before my trip to Iowa and in any free time, we have tuned into to local and national coverage. Everytime a candidate does a live interview with a show host or reporter, they almost always ask at least one instigating question about another candidate.
In Iowa, caucus-goers get the chance to meet as many candidates as they would like, so to an extent, they may not rely on the media for this coverage. To much of the rest of the country, they have to rely on these interviews and the media to develop their feelings about candidates.
The media seems to have an even more drastic impact on the selection of the presidential nominees as well. Many people have questions about why Iowa is so influential when it only represents the votes of one states' voters.
My simple answer is the media. When a candidate wins in Iowa, they seem to get the greatest amount of positive press coverage. This springboards them into the lead in other states where voters rely on that media coverage and have had little or no chance to interact with candidates themselves.
In 2007, Herb Strentz via NeimanWatchdog.org stated, "The most pressing question about the Iowa caucuses is not how can the news media do a better job of campaign coverage, but rathers how can Iowans rescue the caucuses from what the news media have become."
I find the issue to be a combination of both of these aspects. There should be continuous efforts to improve coverage because of the fact that the rest of the American voters don't have the same opportunities as Iowas. And the campaign events and rallies are not quite like appearances that will be made later in 2008. However, Strentz made a strong, very relevant statement referring to our somewhat slanted media.
The relationship between media coverage and election outcomes is an interesting one to watch, especially in our country where reporters are supposed to be neutral. Is it really possible - no matter how great a reporter?
Six-year-old defies the theory that young people aren’t engaged in politics
Des Moines, IA – Mainstream media has referred to college students as apathetic, elusive and disengaged when it comes to politics. As a member of the so-called “millennials” and a political nerd, I have consistently disagreed with this assessment as disproportionate of the truth. Yet after telling many of my friends that I would be spending my New Year’s at the Iowa Caucus and getting blank stares in return, I wondered if the media were correct. The past few days in Iowa, however, confirmed that there are a large number of students who engage themselves politically, and I was impressed to meet other students – some as young as six – participating in the festivities afforded by the approaching Iowa Caucus.
The “Huck and Chuck” rally – a play on Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee and supporter Chuck Norris’ names – on Tuesday night in a local Des Moines ballroom (site of the famous "Dean Scream" of 2004) drew an impressive crowd of Iowa voters and out-of-state observers. 
Students from Manchester College in Indiana arrived in the “first-in-the-nation” state this past Sunday to observe, blog and even volunteer for different candidates as part of a January course in political science.
Leonard Williams, professor of political science at Manchester, said he typically takes his students in this course to Washington D.C., but this year, given the relative unpredictability of the presidential race, chose the Caucus instead. The students, much like our Louisiana State crew, are attending different rallies for as many candidates as possible, but most admitted they were not there last night for Huckabee. “It’s all about Chuck,” said Jason Ray, Manchester freshman. Huckabee himself said to the crowd, “As much as I’d like to believe you all are here for me, I know better.” He introduced the man best known for his role on the 90s television series Walker, Texas Ranger and the Total Gym advertisements to the applauding crowd.
There were, however, many supporters there for Huckabee, including 6-year-old Ashley from Flagstaff, Arizona. Ashley is a Flagstaff home school student and is the youngest member of John Echols’ political science home schooling program. Echols had his students, ages 6 to 17, conduct research on every presidential candidate, Democrats and Republicans alike, and then hold an election to see which candidate they would support. “We chose [Huckabee] when he was still a second-tier candidate,” Echols said, citing the grass-roots support Huckabee has received since that time as a main reason for his recent surge in the polls.
Rachel Blanchard, age 12, said she liked Huckabee because, “He’s pro-life; he’s for home schooling; and he’s for one man, one woman,” factors that the Flagstaff students and chaperones all looked for. The students then raised money for the candidate, and over the past two days, made more than 3500 phone calls for Huckabee to Iowa voters. They relaxed at the Tuesday night rally and danced to The Boogie Woogers band and Huckabee on the guitar. 
Although many of the Manchester students volunteered for the Democratic campaigns of Obama, Clinton, Edwards and Richardson, they were just as excited to be involved with the rally and the entire Caucus this year. “I don’t think a lot of people our age have an idea of the impact Iowa has on the race,” said Kristi Sattison, sophomore. She was excited to be in a setting so different from Indiana, which hosts a primary rather than a caucus system, and to learn so much about the candidates. After all, “You can’t learn everything from a textbook.”
Engaged Citizenry in Iowa
When Iowa residents headed to candidate rallies on a New Year’s Day in single digit weather, I first thought they must have lost a bet of some kind, but in fact I was witnessing some of the most engaged citizenry in the nation.
These excited, rosy-cheeked citizens filled a high school gymnasium to the rafters for a rally for Sen. Obama. At one point, the senator asked members of the crowd to raise their hands if they planned to caucus, and of course, most of the members there raised their hands. He then asked all those who hadn’t yet made a decision to raise their hands; there were about twenty or so people who earnestly raised theirs, deeply wanting to hear Obama’s message.
I am certain that there are thousands of individuals across the state of Iowa, from both sides of the aisle, who have actually take the time to study the candidates, whether they have made their decision or not. For Louisiana and other states with a late primary date, it is pretty much solidly pre-determined who the candidates are going to be for each party, and soon everyone aligns with the party’s nominee, no matter who the candidate is. But what sets Iowa and other early primary states apart is their deep and thorough connection to the presidential campaign. The responsibility these residents must feel in the election process astounds me. But when asked about the gravity of their role in deciding the next leader of the free world, several caucus participants looked at me as though I was crazy. Their role is second nature to them, yet it blew me away. Louisianans would be so lucky to have half the chance of Iowans to earnestly study the candidates before deciding who best fits the mold of their president.
Additionally, I owe theses Iowans a huge compliment. Never in my life have I seen such active political engagement, where it’s not just peripheral-route campaigning, but dedicated, sincere discussions in order to reach a conclusion. And I can’t wait until Thursday evening to observe a caucus in action and witness a throwback to the old fashioned town hall meetings, reflective of our earliest democratic processes. The residents of Iowa and other early primary states should be proud of the energy they put into their votes.
Truthfully, the kind of dedication to the democratic process that I have seen in Iowa is exactly the type of dedication all citizens should practice before casting a vote. Researching candidates, discussing a decision with others, and thinking outside of an echo chamber are the practices to follow in this democracy of ours. We should all study our history and renew our appreciation of our ability to vote. Citizens who don’t own land, African-Americans, women, and everyone between the ages of 18 and 21 should have an increased appreciation for a vote, if only to honor those who came before them to fight for it. A vote is so precious and hallowed that it is deserving of the energy needed to make a well-researched decision.
And being that it is beginning of a brand new year, I feel that it would be in our best interest as American citizens to resolve to use prudent judgment when making a decision, and casting a vote only after the right preparations have gone into it. Iowa, thank you for opening my eyes to a truly engaged citizenry.
Iowa Day 1: Our Caucus-Opener
In an Ames Panera Bread deli, during our lunch hour break, I listened in on two Iowa women while they surveyed the presidential field. "We Iowans are tough and we take this seriously," admitted Trish Sheil, an Ames chiropractor. Further eavesdropping on their conversation revealed good news for Edwards. Cecelia Kemmerer, donning an "Edwards '08" button and fresh from the senator's Ames rally, asserted, "I think John Edwards can put the heart and soul back into this country." The pair's political zeal, refreshing and enlivening, reflects the passionate, participatory nature of the Iowa caucuses.
"It's the last time it's real," explained Jerry Crawford, senior campaign advisor for Clinton, during a discussion session earlier this morning. We began our first full day in the Hawkeye state with Crawford and Doug Gros, Romney's right hand fellow. In their remarks, both political gurus emphasized the authentic, on-the-ground quality of the caucuses. Iowa is unique in that caucus-goers engage in lengthy, contentious debate and deliberation with their friends and neighbors. With this in mind, Crawford and Gross agreed the caucuses, more in-depth and involved than a primary,transform presidential hopefuls into prepared, well-equipped candidates. After all, the scrutiny some hopefuls face, glimpsed in Sheil and Kemmere's conversation, is enough to separate the champs from the chumps.
Though not a caucus, democratic participation was alive and well during John Edwards' Ames rally, our second stop on day 1.The rally began with the senator's wife's opening remarks. In the company of their two children, Jack and Emma Claire, Elizabeth Edwards touted her husband's electability, reminding attendees that John served as a Democratic senator in a Republican state. Following Elizabeth, Mari Culver, Iowa's first lady, encouraged the undecided voters to consider Edwards, a "battle-tested" candidate worthy of their vote. Culver introduced the Senator who was met with resounding cheers and a standing ovation. Perfectly coiffed and charismatic, Edwards provided commentary on healthcare, immigration, and the impoverished's plight, repeatedly articulating the need for change. Rehashing his childhood story, Edwards reminisced of mill work and modest beginnings as rally attendees interrupted with widespread clapping and the occasional "Yeah!" shout. All eyes were glued on Edwards as I witnessed democracy at work. In a little over an hour's time, participants were afforded the opportunity to size up a first-tier candidate without media filter.
Our third major stop of the caucus opener was Governor Mike Huckabee's "Huck and Chuck" event. Hosted in Des Moines' Val Air ballroom, the venue appropriately mirrored the event's vibe- casual, hokie, and entertaining. While the Boogie Woogers provided the beat, Visitors of all ages proudly displayed Huckabee signs for all to see. In fact, a group of attendees chanted "Huck!" while another group responded "Chuck!" Spirits were energized as Iowa community members engaged in a night of democracy. Speaking on respect for human life, gay marriage, and foreign policy, Huckabee showcased an ease for public speaking and a charming wit. Upon completion, Huckabee introduced Chuck Norris and his striking wife Gena. As a result, the spotlight immediately turned to them, and to the Governor's detriment, stayed on the couple for the remainder of the night. Though the Governor showed off his guitar-playing abilities, he never regained the crowd's full attention. Eyes were locked on the ranger. While Huckabee's organization did not compete with that of the Edwards' camp, supporters of the Arkansas governor still received an image of their candidate free from media interference, an opportunity to cherish.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
President Should Be Communicator in Chief
I was a little skeptical about attending a Mike Huckabee event. I hadn't even given him much thought as a viable candidate, but with the latest poll numbers and his rapid rise in popularity, it was important to sit up and take notice.
I didn't have any expectations going into the event, so I was open-minded about what Huckabee and the other speakers in support of his campaign had to say.
And he did in fact say one thing that really stuck with me. "One of the most important jobs other than being the Commander in Chief is to be the Communicator in Chief." I realized after having heard 4 of the frontrunners speak in person (and all of the others either on the Senate floor or on television), that regardless of who wins, it seems we will have a president who will be able to effectively communicate with the American people for the first time in 8 years.
Huckabee went on to discuss the need for unity and less Republican versus Democrat in what was the highlight of the "Chuck and Huck" event in Des Moines tonight.
Huckabee: Baptist Minister vs. Governor
Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris joined forces to bolster Huckabee's campaign in the final stretch in Iowa tonight. "Chuck and Huck" was unlike any campaign event I have ever been to. I felt more like I was at a concert or even at church service. I will admit that it was a lot of fun, but was it a successful campaign event?
Avid Huckabee supporters were thrilled, and the crowd was lively and engaged with several chants, including "we want Huck!"
However, several undecided voters were disappointed and said that the event was interesting to say the least but did pull them toward him for Thursday's caucuses.
Huckabee made references to the Bible including a quote from 1 Corinthians, and much of his speech had the tone of a sermon.
Over the course of Huckabee's speech, there were many "amens" and "hallelujahs." Then Chuck Norris expressed his disappointment in the media and critics in calling Huckabee "a baptist minister" instead of "Governor Huckabee." "We wouldn't call Romney businessman Romney, so let's be fair here!"
Not to say that Huckabee does not deserve accolades for his political groundwork in Arkansas, but the title of "Baptist Minister Huckabee" is not unfounded.
Obama and expectations
Barack Obama gave an impassioned speech at a rally in Des Moines, IA Tuesday. It can be characterized as a “last chance” type speech telling the Iowans present that they cannot afford to wait for change and a different kind of politics is necessary.
Obama tallied up the problems he thought were affecting the people of Iowa and implied that he would solve, or at least attempt to solve, these problems using the government. Obama said the American government isn’t listening or doing anything. Obama received a huge applause regarding these points despite that our American government is bigger and more expansive than it ever has been in our history. I hope that Americans don’t fall into the trap of only wondering “what’s in it for me” when considering what the role of their government and politics in our country. That type of mentality can lead to higher expectations than our government has shown it can deliver on.
Do Iowans Fully Realize Their Political Priveleges?
Every time we have attended a campaign event this week, we have been approached by caucus precinct captains who want to make sure we know where we're supposed to vote. Each time we simply answer "we're from Louisiana" and suddenly curious heads start turning.
"Why would you come here all the way from Louisiana?" several confuses Iowans have asked.
Well, in just over 24 hours, I have been able to do the following:
1. Hear speeches from Bill and Hillary Clinton.
2. Shake the hand of Barack Obama.
3. Get my picture taken with Mike Huckabee (and Chuck Norris for that matter).
These are opportunities available to all Iowans, whose votes presidential candidates are so ardently fighting for. Yet every time we mention how far we have come, we get looks of confusion.
I cannot imagine ever meeting so many people of importance with such ease in Louisiana. Do Iowans realize that these opportunities are not available to the rest of the country?
. . . And Mike Huckabee, Too!
At Mike Huckabee's "Huck and Chuck" rally today in Des Moines, Iowa, the former Arkansas governor spoke as the friendly neighborhood preacher. Start with a joke, put in some business, throw in another joke, more business, and close with a joke. He followed a painfully self-loving three piece classic rock cover band and briefly outlined his platform. Fair tax, the sanctity of marriage, and beefing up defense spending so that we'll be so strong no one will want to mess with us (seriously).
Huck's speech was the low point of the night. He joked about his supporters disabling Romney supporters' cars on Thursday (caucus day), then introduced the main event. "A great American hero," Chuck Norris!
Chuck took the stage to wild applause. With his wife by his side, he mentioned that supporting Mike Huckabee was so important to them that they left their six year old twins in California to be with the Huck. He then explained every detail of the commercial that he shot with the governor, just in case we missed it.
Chuck Norris has a gripe with the media. Evidently, it is unfair that Huckabee is referred to as a Baptist minister. It should be Governor Huckabee. We don't call Mitt Romney Businessman Romney. I was not aware that "Baptist minister" was a derogatory term.
Someone asked Chuck Norris if he was tougher than Mike Huckabee. He answered, "I work out on the Total Gym, but I'm not as tough." The crowd went wild.
After Chuck, Janet Huckabee took the stage and announced, "I can't wait to be your first lady, because it is going to be too cool." To show how cool a Huckabee White House would be, Mike retook the stage with the bass guitar that was conspicuously missing from the opening band. He announced a special guest on the rhythm guitar--MSNBC pundit Joe Scarborough(I'm not making this up)--and they launched into an excited version of Lynyrd Skynyrd's "Sweet Home Alabama." And no, Watergate does not bother them.
After a couple of songs, Chuck Norris related the evidently hilarious story about how he choked out a Marine while taking a picture with him during a USO trip. All the other Marines in Iraq heard about it and also thought it was hilarious. Then Chuck shared his favorite Chuck Norris Fact. "They were going to put Chuck Norris's face on Mount Rushmore, but the granite was not tough enough for his beard," said Mr. Norris through an ecstatic grin. Where is Bruce Lee when you need him?
Mike Huckabee's new spokesman is wildly popular and seemingly loyal, but his speech is disorganized, his vibe narcissistic, and his presence distracting. Then again, when a campaign event is more about the candidate's bass solo during "Roll Over Beethoven" than the candidate's message, he fits right in.
Huckabee: Live in Concert
Although I cannot claim attendance at a large number of campaign events, I can say that Mike Huckabee's "Huck and Chuck" event tonight did not feel like an ordinary rally. Upon first walking in, the first surprise was the number of young people present. Apparently Republican events (or maybe just those of Huckabee) are a family affair.
The event also felt very much like a concert, with people packed to the front by the stage and a live band playing jazz (and even some zydeco). For a while there, I did forget I was at a political rally and just danced around enjoying the music.
I snapped back to reality quick enough when Huckabee started tossing around his campaign platform with his humor. He offered advice to his supporters, asking them to encourage undecided voters to caucus in his favor and jokingly added that if they decided to vote against him, his supporters have an obligation to make sure those people stay at home on caucus night.
The issues that Governor Huckabee wedged between quick wit involved his fair tax plan, views on members of the LGBT community, need for veterans benefits, and desire to build up the military to a strength level that will scare off potential threats.
In a way very reminiscent of Clinton with his saxophone, Huckabee took the stage with his bass and played a couple of songs on the set, including "Sweet Home Alabama."
One announcement while we were there touted an attendance of over 2000 people. In closing, Huckabee asked, "Who says Republicans don't know how to party?!" Well, I never said it - especially since Louisiana's conservatives manage pretty good parties - Huckabee certainly impressed me with his ability to get a crowd excited about his message and his messenger.
Naturally, some of the people at the event were there because of the "Chuck Factor." Chuck Norris has most certainly done a lot for the image and popularity of Huckabee, since the first Chuck Huck Facts video.
I'll admit it - I was quite excited to have met and taken a photo with Walker Texas Ranger.
All in all, the Huck and Chuck event was fun and informative. Can't wait for tomorrow.
VIDEO FROM HUCK AND CHUCK:
Obama Nation
Ten months of hard work seems to be paying off for Barack Obama as he is beginning to see the fruits of his labor in Iowa. From the beginning of his campaign, Obama has preached "change" and it seems like the people of Iowa have finally bought his message. Just two days away from the caucuses, and the Obama campaign does not seem to have tired.
This morning, 400-500 Iowans gathered in the small gymnasium of Roosevelt High in the capital of the state. The excitement was high and the people were wide awake as they chanted "Fired Up, Ready for Change!" in anticipation of Obama's arrival. Iowans of all ages and races gathered to show their support for the senator that has seemed to start a movement with his ideals of hope, change and a better America.
Carol Hofmann, an Obama supporter, traveled from Massachusetts to witness the unprecedented enthusiasm that is taking over the Iowa caucuses. Hofmann is ready to see a president that she can believe in, one that she believes is telling her the truth, and for her, Obama is the man. Let’s see if Obama can springboard himself into the next caucuses with a win in Iowa.
Electability vs. Most Qualified/Candidate I Like Best
I have had some informal discussions with Iowa caucus-goers, and I have yet to find one who is deciding their candidate based on electability. Iowans are passionate about their responsibility in our democratic process, and the ones who have already decided their candidate believe their candidate is in fact the most electable in the general election. However, this is not why they chose that candidate.
Several Hillary supporters expressed that they believe Obama to be an electable candidate, but they believe Hillary is as well plus they feel she is more qualified. The same went for Obama supporters.
It's interesting that caucus-goers don't seem to be considering this factor particularly when Democrats are so desperate to take back the White House.
Most polls indicate the Barack Obama is in the best position to beat whichever Republican candidate takes the nomination.
Photos from Obama rally at Jefferson High
Here are a few photos from the Obama rally. Video footage of his speech will soon follow.
Obama's "Hope with Political Will"
The talk of Barack Obama's campaign has been "hope." Voters' belief in hope has been the driving force behind his grassroots efforts, and his opponents have criticized him for the hopeful optimism.
Today, Obama addressed a packed auditorium at Roosevelt High School in Des Moines. He addressed the issue and touts "hope with political will." The crowd cheered.
Is this campaign theme going to work? The Des Moines Register's latest poll numbers suggest that it will. If it does and Obama wins Thursday in Iowa, he will be on a springboard to the Democratic nomination. And he will already have made history with the success of his grassroots movement - in terms of fundraising and caucus turnout.
It is an interesting aspect of his campaign especially in comparision to Hillary's. I was amazed at the difference in atmospheres between Hillary's New Year's Eve event and Obama's New Year's Day event.
The crowds were immensely different. Hillary was an older, seemingly more sophisticated crowd. Obama's crowd was younger and more energetic. Based on atmosphere, one would think the candidates were aligned with different parties. Upon arrival at Roosevelt High School, everyone was handed a yellow card with information about how to locate your precinct if you were a first time caucus-goer. Campaign volunteers also requested contact information from every supporter so that they can better facilitate Thursday night's caucuses.
If Obama wins in Iowa, it will surely be an indication that Americans really are seeking drastic change and that Obama's "hope with political will" is believable.
"The Fierce Urgency of Now"
The atmosphere of Barack Obama's rally was one I have never experienced. Without the instigation of campaign staff, supporters began chants for over thirty minutes ("Fired Up! Ready for Change!") while excitedly waving their signs. People of all ages were present including high school and college students.
The environment created at this rally was completely different from that of Hilary Clinton's rally last night. As Jerry Crawford said this morning, "perception is reality" in politics. And it is easy to see that Obama's charismatic personality brought a sense of enjoyment and comfort from those in the room. The same idea can be applied to Clinton's New Year celebration. Her rushed speech lacked passion and resulted in a weak crowd in comparison to Obama's supporters this afternoon.
Obama continuously applauded his constituents for their hard work, dedication, and support. He then verbalized a similar thought I had been pondering. In his attempt to corral as many people to the caucus on Thursday, he told the Iowans to take advantage of the the special privilege at hand to participate in the democratic process. As we discuss these events with one another, being from Louisiana, we are envious of the opportunities presented to Iowans and hope that they do, in fact, take advantage of being a caucus-goer- not only for themselves, but for all of those who are unable to be a part of this unique process.
Barack Obama quoted Dr. King when describing his approach to better the future of America and summing up his speech. He said he has talked to the people of Iowa and has felt the "fierce urgency of now." People have lost trust in the government, he said, and is ready to "match the strength of our military with the strength of diplomacy."
Finding Time to "Stand Up"
“It’s time for us to stand up” and that’s just what a local Iowan is doing. After hearing Senator Edwards’ speech a single mother with no health insurance who was once undecided is now caucusing for Edwards.The rally started out with Elizabeth Edwards accompanied by Jack and Emma Claire. Elizabeth spoke of the long haul in the near future and joked, “I’m an insomniac which will be helpful on this 36 hour marathon.”
Quickly following Elizabeth was Mari Culver, Iowa’s first lady. Earlier in the campaign season Culver endorsed Senator Edwards. Culver said Edwards has been battle-tested in his previous run for the presidency and after reading his book, she too “chose to be inspired”. With the 200,000 men and women who will sleep under a bridge tonight Culver believes Edwards is the “only candidate with a plan to end poverty in our lifetime”.
With the anxious arrival of the senator, the crowd was ecstatic as he entered the room. He was casually dressed wearing jeans, a white button-down and a blazer. He shook hands of supporters and undecided caucus goers. Edwards promptly began speaking of not letting corporate greed eradicate what his parents and grandparents have worked for. He then asked a rhetorical question, “when will it stop?” with an older man in the crowd yelling, “when you’re president”. Edwards continued with, “we have a responsibility to our children and grandchildren…this is very personal…corporate greed rules with an iron fist and it’s not just happening to Independents and Democrats, it’s to all of us.”
Questions were then taken from the audience, one of them being what is Edwards’ stance on immigration. He quickly responded with advice given to him by his wife. “When you walk into Blockbuster a voice says ‘Welcome to Blockbuster’. If Blockbuster can figure out when someone comes in, then we should be able to figure out when someone crosses our boarder. And if we can’t figure it out then we need to ask Blockbuster.”
After answering the question, Edwards was told last question by one of his aids and left the rally goers with some food for thought, “a tide-a-wave of change is sweeping through the country that people can’t even imagine and you will be able to say, ‘we stood up’.”
John Edwards Rally
From Ames, Iowa:
The busses split today so that one group could attend a John Edwards rally at the Union of Iowa State University about 30 minutes outside of Des Moines. We arrived early, with not many cars in the parking garage. The union had tables with John Edwards buttons and t-shirts as well as several volunteers asking us to sign in and pledge support to Edwards in the caucus. Once inside the room, reporters ran rampant along every wall and a large American flag framed by two vertical "Edwards 08" posters along the stage.
The room quickly became quite full and warm, but was full of lively conversation. One older couple from Boon, Iowa, answered several of my questions and offered several opinions on the caucus system. They commented on a Clinton event they attended this morning and how it was incredibly unorganized. The woman said that Clinton lost her vote today because, "If she can't efficiently organize an event like this, how can she expect to run our country?" While both seem to be clearly aligned with Democrats, they have not yet made a decision.
Once Edwards took the stage, the conversations and clapping quieted as he began to speak about his blue collar roots. In his twenty minute long speech, he was clearly trying to identify with Iowans by discussing his past and connections with the middle class. He was very straightforward in much of his speech, identifying his stance on issues such as universal healthcare, immigration and corporate greed as well as foreign and trade policies.
He took questions from the crowd, in one such answer he outlined the types of people he will include in his administration as President. "I want people who are talented, bright, strong and independent. I don't want a bunch of 'yes' people...I want someone who will challenge me." As far as a potential Vice Presidential choice, he hinted at a list, but insisted that whoever would be the counterpart of his ticket will have to be someone who shares his vision and will be able to continue his legacy in addition to being completely prepared and capable as a President, should he not be able to complete his term.
The crowd was very enthusiastic and receptive to the presidential candidate, with one woman verbalizing her conversion to the Edwards camp. Cheering and clapping, sign waving, and a mad rush to converse with Edwards, the rally ended most certainly on a positive note.
To view John Edwards' speech given at Iowa State today, please see below:
Coming Soon...
Obama Canvass Kickoff
(Des Moines, IA) Barack Obama held a rally in the gymnasium of
Roosevelt High School this morning. Special guests included local a
musician, alumni and teachers of Roosevelt High. The lively crowd was
remarkably diverse. One especially noticeable group consisted of 17
high school students who registered 250 of their peers to vote. It was
an appreciation party for those who've been working and a pep rally
for what's to come.
Staying Hot in 10 Degrees
Des Moines, IA – When trying to understand the Iowa caucus, the average voter will invariably be confused. Ask around to caucus-goers and campaign managers alike; the nature of the caucus is as hard to understand as any political process. “The Caucus is a curious political beast,” said Doug Gross, Senior Advisor in Iowa for the Mitt Romney presidential campaign. Curious, doesn’t even begin to describe the difference between Democratic and Republican caucuses, the viability dynamic, and second-choice factor afforded to voters in Iowa. Candidates and their camps must take these factors into account to determine their campaign strategies in the state. Gross said the key to winning the Caucus is to “organize, organize, organize and get hot at the end.”
Jerry Crawford, Senior Advisor in Iowa for the Hillary Clinton camp agreed with Gross, saying that it’s not enough to get hot; to have enough momentum to pull out a victory, a candidate needs to get hot as close to the date of the Caucus as possible. “It’s hard to stay hot, if you get hot too early,” said Crawford, citing the fall of Democratic contender Howard Dean in the Iowa Caucus in 2004. Dean was a dominating force in Iowa early in the race, but a late surge by Senator John Kerry ultimately handed Dean a loss in Iowa. “Just the late Iowa polling gave [Kerry] an increase in New Hampshire,” Crawford said. “Romney has the same potential,” he added, reminiscing about the early months of the campaign when Romney was largely disregarded as a frontrunner.
Both advisors also agreed that Iowa, as in past years, will provide a slingshot to propel the candidates who finish first to a victory in the New Hampshire primary. “The maximum impact of Iowa is about five to six days,” said Gross. Because the primary falls on January 5, a mere two days after the Caucus, the winners in Iowa – and even candidates who simply do “better than expected” – will have a huge advantage in New Hampshire, if not an insurmountable one. For frontrunners Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side, and Romney on the Republican side, a loss in Iowa would decrease their chances in future primaries. For now, all candidates are focusing on getting hot in ten degree weather.
Getting Hot in the Home Stretch
It is definitely campaign season in Iowa. Billboards, commercials, rallies – you name it. This morning our group had the opportunity to meet with Doug Gross, senior advisor to the Romney campaign, and Jerry Crawford, senior advisor to the Clinton campaign. Both offered very valuable insight into the Democrat and Republican camps here in Iowa.
Just this morning, the Des Moines Register poll had Obama at 32%, Clinton at 25%, and Edwards at 24%. A large majority of Obama’s support comes from people who have never before participated in a caucus and, considering that the Democratic caucus system in particular is complicated and intimidating, this could be to his detriment.
Crawford and Gross are both in agreement that it is important to gauge these numbers in relation to who the pollsters identify as the caucus-goers. For example, if a poll lists evangelical Christians as the majority of poll goers, naturally someone like Huckabee would be higher up on that list.
With the New Hampshire primary just five days behind the Iowa caucuses, whatever happens in Iowa will have a definite impact there. Both advisors felt that a win in Iowa for their candidates will translate into a win in New Hampshire. However, if Clinton comes in second to Edwards or Obama, it could most certainly become a more heated race. The same thing could occur with a McCain showing in Iowa, with him offering a strong opposition to the Huckabee and Romney efforts.
Iowa is most certainly an interesting place to be right now, and meeting with Gross and Crawford was absolutely a great experience for us. These statistics and scenarios they provided help us to understand the dynamic of Iowa and exactly the impact this very competitive election could have on the rest of the country as other primaries grow near.
For more information on the Des Moines Poll, please visit the Iowa Poll.
I like Obama, but . . .
Business at Senator Clinton’s New Year’s Eve rally was as expected. Bill spoke, Hillary spoke, and beer and wine were sold. The only soda was Diet Coke.
While wandering through mobs of Hillraisers, I heard the new cliché, “I like Obama, but . . .” The speaker didn’t finish the sentence. I intruded, apologized for eavesdropping, and asked if she would complete the thought. The experienced Iowan noticed my pen and paper and rattled off practiced reasons for not supporting the Illinois senator. “He doesn’t seem like a leader yet,” she said. She also felt that he is not courting middle-aged women. Hillary’s combination of experience, understanding of the middle-aged woman (around 60% of caucus goers have historically been women), and Bill’s magic touch—“He’s an asset,” she said—all made this former Edwards woman a faithful Clinton canvasser.
She supported Edwards in 2004, but thinks he missed his shot. For this volunteer, the Clinton choice relies on timing, not just likability. She admitted admiration for both Obama and Edwards, but feels that the former’s time has not yet come and the latter’s time has already passed.
Chased out before midnight by the high beer price and the standard substandard campaign event rock band, I ran into two distressed women arguing in the cold. “But you have to support Clinton!”
Clinton supporters are taking the slowing of the Hillary freight train in stride and maintaining confidence.ISEA
We just spoke to Doug Gross, political adviser for Romney's campaign and Jerry Crawford, political adviser for the Clinton campaign at the Iowa State Education Association. They willingly spoke with our group about important aspects regarding their campaigns and this Thursday's caucus.
Both stressed the importance of organization, but the caucus results are ambiguous. After the release of Des Moines Register's final polls, placing Huckabee as the frontrunner, Gross was clear to point out that polls can not determine who will win the caucus, but it is "all about turn out."
Crawford is confident about Clinton winning Thursday. He believes that the attending caucus-goers will be in Clinton's favor. Some polls suspect that Iowa will see huge attendance, providing favorable conditions for Obama. However, Clinton's wide support among women over the age of 60 remains strong and Crawford points out that this demographic has always been the largest group of caucus-goers.
Crawford summed up our discussion by applauding every candidate's efforts and said that "every candidate will leave Iowa a better candidate."
Monday, December 31, 2007
Theme of Interviews
I have been thinking about the best way to approach our task of talking to voters and reporting on caucus events. I've listened to many news stories and read many magazine and newspaper articles. I have concluded that one of the most interesting aspects of the caucuses and primaries is the "electability" vs. "which candidate I like best" factor. Many candidates within both parties have boasted electability in the general election, so the question is how much will this play into the selection of nominees for each party? I intend to ask as many Iowa voters as possible for their input on this aspect of voting. Follow up to this post will be posted as soon as I have some input available.
Posted by: Elizabeth Weiner
Drive to Iowa City
Iowa City. More to come.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Riding on the City of New Orleans
Before we embark upon the train and to test post, I thought it would appropriate to include a few words from Willie Nelson's The City of New Orleans. It is a song about the train we'll be riding.
We could subsitute "fifteen" for "twenty" and it would be perfect.
Riding on the City of New Orleans,
Illinois Central Monday morning rail
Fifteen cars and fifteen restless riders,
Three conductors and twenty-five sacks of mail.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
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