Caucus Night is upon us. And the winner is....

By Robert McAlister

With just under 4 hours until the Iowa Caucuses get under way, there is still no way to accurately determine which Democratic candidate will come away with the most support at the end of the night. Even though a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows Barack Obama pulling away finishing ahead of John Edwards and placing Hillary Clinton in third, there are too many other factors that make this race’s outcome unknowable.
For instance, John Edwards has retained much of the same organization that he had in 2004 when he ran for president, an advantage neither Obama nor Clinton has. Edwards has a loyal group of fervent supporters and there is no reason to suspect that they will stay home. Clinton on the other hand does extremely well with women over 50 who have been known to show up in great numbers, according to Clinton Strategist and well-respected Democratic operative Jerry Crawford. There is also no reason to suspect that the over 50 female demographic will stay home tonight, especially with a warming of temperatures (comparatively in Iowa, it’s still below freezing).
Barack Obama has the obvious advantage in the polls today and has had that advantage for the later part of the Iowa campaign. It appears that Obama is doing extremely well with independents, who can show up tonight to democratic caucuses and support him if they change their registration on the spot. There is a projection that a large number of independents will show up tonight, according to a recent Des Moines Register poll. That projection would also require unprecedented turn out, which could still happen given the excitement around this year’s caucus.
Despite the millions spent on campaign commercials, the incredible organization by all three campaigns over the last year and the incredible amount of time that the candidates have committed to the Hawkeye State, there is no way to tell whether Clinton, Edwards or Obama will decisively win or just barely get by. While Iowa is by no means the final Armageddon type battle of this campaign season, a loss here can represent a significant setback to a major front-runner like Clinton, while a win for an underdog like Edwards could catapult him into at least having a shot at winning the nomination.
Journalists, pundits and fans of the political process will be glued to their television screens tonight to find out the ultimate outcome of the caucus is but one thing is guaranteed: A concession speech tonight could be as important as a victory speech. (See Howard Dean circa 2004…)