Confused about what’s happening in the Caucus? So is Iowa

Des Moines, IA – A flip through any of the major news station today shows headlines reporting that the races are “too close to call.” With the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucus less than hours away, there are a multitude of polls being released – none of which support the other. Being in Iowa does not help to make the races seem any clearer. Charlie Cook, founder and editor of The Cook Political Report, gave some reasons why several of the candidates appear to be on top.

“The Democrats, to me, are like kids in a Baskin-Robbins. They’re looking at 31 flavors, many which sound so good,” Cook said. Indeed, during my Iowa travels, I have heard many Iowa Democrats say things such as, “I like __________, but I would be just as happy with __________,” (Fill in the blanks with any of the top three candidates – Clinton, Obama or Edwards – and you would have many Iowa Democrats spot on).

In reality, the latest Iowa rallies for Clinton, Obama and Edwards support the theory that the three do agree on many of the issues. They each agree that the U.S. should begin to withdraw troops in Iraq; that healthcare is an issue that needs to be changed to cover more Americans; that education needs to be reformed; and that global warming is a very real issue that the U.S. needs to help resolve by cutting emissions. As Cook said, many Iowa Democrats may have aligned themselves with a candidate, but “at least two or three others would be acceptable.”

Republicans in Iowa may be having a harder time deciding which candidate they should caucus for. Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney had a successful career as a businessman before he became Governor of Massachusetts in 2003, and Republican voters who value fiscal responsibility seem to like him. A Tuesday night rally for candidate Mike Huckabee, however, showed that Republican voters who are socially conservative and have strong religious values are attracted to Huck.

There is no Republican candidate who seems to unite the two, and besides dark-horse candidate Ron Paul, Romney and Huckabee are the two main choices for Iowa Republicans. Fred Thompson, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani have all but dismissed the Caucus and passed on devoting any legitimate time to campaigning in the state. Republicans may feel as if they are looking at a menu, and cannot find anything that is exactly what they want to order, as Cook put it.

Although, the exact turnout and results of the Caucus are unknown, one thing seems certain. Any Democratic candidate would have a slight advantage over any Republican candidate, simply because of the nature of voters. “We just don’t elect a party three times in a row,” Cook said. The nation has had eight years of a Republican president, and eight seems to be enough. Never mind President Bush’s historically low approval ratings, which only magnify the advantage Democrats have for 2008. If we had had eight years of a Democratic president, the reverse would be true.

Add to that the fact that Democrats are hungry for a victory after losing with two different candidates in the past eight years. Iowa voters will be the first to know tonight which candidate may likely become the next nominee for either party. The rest of the nation will have to watch the Caucus unfold tonight, because the races are likely to remain too close to call.