It is definitely campaign season in Iowa. Billboards, commercials, rallies – you name it. This morning our group had the opportunity to meet with Doug Gross, senior advisor to the Romney campaign, and Jerry Crawford, senior advisor to the Clinton campaign. Both offered very valuable insight into the Democrat and Republican camps here in Iowa.
Just this morning, the Des Moines Register poll had Obama at 32%, Clinton at 25%, and Edwards at 24%. A large majority of Obama’s support comes from people who have never before participated in a caucus and, considering that the Democratic caucus system in particular is complicated and intimidating, this could be to his detriment.
Crawford and Gross are both in agreement that it is important to gauge these numbers in relation to who the pollsters identify as the caucus-goers. For example, if a poll lists evangelical Christians as the majority of poll goers, naturally someone like Huckabee would be higher up on that list.
With the New Hampshire primary just five days behind the Iowa caucuses, whatever happens in Iowa will have a definite impact there. Both advisors felt that a win in Iowa for their candidates will translate into a win in New Hampshire. However, if Clinton comes in second to Edwards or Obama, it could most certainly become a more heated race. The same thing could occur with a McCain showing in Iowa, with him offering a strong opposition to the Huckabee and Romney efforts.
Iowa is most certainly an interesting place to be right now, and meeting with Gross and Crawford was absolutely a great experience for us. These statistics and scenarios they provided help us to understand the dynamic of Iowa and exactly the impact this very competitive election could have on the rest of the country as other primaries grow near.
For more information on the Des Moines Poll, please visit the Iowa Poll.
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