Staying Hot in 10 Degrees

Des Moines, IA – When trying to understand the Iowa caucus, the average voter will invariably be confused. Ask around to caucus-goers and campaign managers alike; the nature of the caucus is as hard to understand as any political process. “The Caucus is a curious political beast,” said Doug Gross, Senior Advisor in Iowa for the Mitt Romney presidential campaign. Curious, doesn’t even begin to describe the difference between Democratic and Republican caucuses, the viability dynamic, and second-choice factor afforded to voters in Iowa. Candidates and their camps must take these factors into account to determine their campaign strategies in the state. Gross said the key to winning the Caucus is to “organize, organize, organize and get hot at the end.”

Jerry Crawford, Senior Advisor in Iowa for the Hillary Clinton camp agreed with Gross, saying that it’s not enough to get hot; to have enough momentum to pull out a victory, a candidate needs to get hot as close to the date of the Caucus as possible. “It’s hard to stay hot, if you get hot too early,” said Crawford, citing the fall of Democratic contender Howard Dean in the Iowa Caucus in 2004. Dean was a dominating force in Iowa early in the race, but a late surge by Senator John Kerry ultimately handed Dean a loss in Iowa. “Just the late Iowa polling gave [Kerry] an increase in New Hampshire,” Crawford said. “Romney has the same potential,” he added, reminiscing about the early months of the campaign when Romney was largely disregarded as a frontrunner.

Both advisors also agreed that Iowa, as in past years, will provide a slingshot to propel the candidates who finish first to a victory in the New Hampshire primary. “The maximum impact of Iowa is about five to six days,” said Gross. Because the primary falls on January 5, a mere two days after the Caucus, the winners in Iowa – and even candidates who simply do “better than expected” – will have a huge advantage in New Hampshire, if not an insurmountable one. For frontrunners Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side, and Romney on the Republican side, a loss in Iowa would decrease their chances in future primaries. For now, all candidates are focusing on getting hot in ten degree weather.